Predict Company Failure Before It Happens
Our credit risk model analyses 48 official data sources and 24.5 million director network connections across 5.9 million UK companies. Validated on 35,000 real insolvencies — captures 83% of future failures in the top half of its risk ranking.
Tested on real failures, not just historical data
We validated our model on 35,000 UK companies that actually entered Liquidation or Administration in 2025 — using only data available before they failed. No hindsight, no data leakage.
83% Capture Rate
Companies in the top 50% of our risk ranking account for 83% of all future insolvencies. Top 30% captures 57%.
2x Top Decile Lift
Companies in the highest-risk 10% are twice as likely to fail as the general population. The lowest-risk 30% have near-zero failure rates.
Forward-Looking
Out-of-time validated on 2025 insolvencies using pre-failure data. AUC >0.92 — exceeding Basel II/III “Excellent” threshold of 0.85.
4 Specialist Models
Companies are automatically routed to the best model for their data profile — from data-rich enterprises to newly incorporated micro-entities.
48 sources. 24.5 million connections. One score.
We combine Companies House filings, FCA registers, Land Registry, ICO, HMRC, gazette notices, sanctions lists, and 40+ more official UK data sources. Then we map every director and PSC across 24.5 million network links to detect contagion risk from connected failures.
- Filing overdue detection — the #1 predictor of failure
- Director network analysis — shared failures across 7.9M companies
- XBRL financial analysis — balance sheet, P&L, employee trends
- Sanctions, PEPs, offshore and disqualified director screening
- Updated daily from Companies House bulk feeds
Risk assessment that sees the full picture
Each company is scored across five independently weighted dimensions, giving you a nuanced view beyond a single number.
Financial Health
Overdue accounts, mortgage charges, payment practices, grants received, and filing patterns from XBRL accounts.
Compliance
FCA registration, ICO compliance, HMRC AML supervision, sanctions screening, and gazette insolvency notices.
Governance
Director history, disqualified directors, PSC structure, company age, and corporate governance signals.
Network Risk
Director failure contagion across 24.5M links, ownership chains, PSC cross-company analysis, and offshore connections.
Operations Quality
CQC ratings, food hygiene scores, modern slavery statements, living wage accreditation, and ESG certifications.
Critical Overrides
Automatic score caps for sanctions, winding up, liquidation, disqualified directors, and strike-off activity.
Every score explained, every signal cited
Our risk scores are fully transparent. Drill down from overall score to dimension to individual sub-score, with every contributing signal listed and sourced.
- Radar chart visualisation of 5 dimensions
- Drilldown cards for each sub-score with contributing factors
- Classification: Robust, Stable, Watch, Elevated, Critical
- 12-month Probability of Default estimate
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